Just two weeks ago, the Panthers were sitting pretty at 6-2 – they were controlling their own destiny and had been in every game of the season right to the end. However, having now slipped to 6-4 with a crushing loss to the admittedly-very-good Steelers and a close loss to the really-not-great Lions, the Panthers’ season now looks noticeably less rosy.
Their playoff chances based on historic data have slipped from 81% to 62% and with that, this Sunday’s game has taken on a lot greater significance than it looked as if it would have even last weekend. Even without the tie-breaking impacts of a loss or win to another team looking for a Wild Card spot, 7-4 teams make the playoffs at a far higher rate than 6-5 teams – 71% compared to 46% – a third consecutive loss, and their first home loss of the season. would signal a significant dent in the Panthers’ playoff hopes. So what do the Panthers’ need to do beat the Seahawks and put themselves in the drivers’ seat for a Wild Card spot?
Run The Ball, Even If It Doesn’t Work Initially
The Seahawks run defense is fairly mediocre in terms of yards-per-game, but in terms of yards-per-carry they are one of the very worst, allowing 4.9 yards per carry for the season; on paper, this should be a good matchup for the Panthers’ third-ranked rushing attack. However, the same thing was supposed to be true going against the Lions’ rush defense, and yet the Panthers struggled to one of their worst rushing performances of the season last week. Some of this was due to the Panthers’ use of wrinkles to their option attack, wrinkles which weren’t hugely successful, but a lot of it was simply down to them abandoning the run game.
This is not something they an afford to do against the Seahawks.
This isn’t the case simply because the Seahawks aren’t great against the run, but also because the Seahawks’ defense is built upon getting teams behind the chains on early downs and then unleashing their pass rush on third downs to generate pressure and turnovers. The Panthers’ offensive line has exceeded expectations to this point in the season, but the Lions game showed repeatedly that this is not a unit that fares well on long third downs – allowing multiple sacks in these situations. If the Panthers do abandon the run, the Seahawks’ defense is built to take advantage of teams dropping back to pass for snap after snap.
If the Panthers can get their running game going, they should be able to move the ball consistently on the Seahawks’ defense – but if they can’t, it will be a lot harder to throw the ball around against the Seahawks than it was against the Lions a week ago, and even that didn’t go great.
Use Small Receiver Matchups
Another characteristic of the Seahawks’ defense is their use of long corners, similar to how the Panthers looked to target longer corners under Sean McDermott – and this means that players like Devin Funchess and Kelvin Benjamin always faced tough matchups when facing Seattle. However, with Benjamin in Buffalo and Funchess likely not active for the game, the Panthers receiving corps is looking very different to how it did the last time these two teams met, especially if Torrey Smith is also unable to go on Sunday. While there will be disadvantages to this, most likely in the red zone where Cam Newton will invariably look to Greg Olsen, it does mean that the Panthers are likely to have a significant advantage in terms of speed and agility, and this is something that they should look to make the most of.
This likely won’t mean an explosion of long pass plays, as the Seahawks defense looks to take away the deep pass effectively, but rather a focus on using quickness to create underneath separation. This will also mean the Panthers are able to make the most of their receivers’ speed after the catch, and if the Panthers can get the ball to Moore, Samuel or Byrd in space, they have every chance of breaking some big plays. This is not the great Seahawks’ defense of five years ago – while the Panthers need to respect their ability to force turnovers, they need to have a positive attitude towards trying to attack a secondary that has undergone a lot of change in recent years.
Additionally, with an eye to beyond this season, this game could provide a glimpse of what the Panthers’ offense might look like post-Funchess – and whether that is a future the Panthers want to explore. If everything falls apart in terms of the passing attack on Sunday, that will serve as a warning that this receiving group isn’t ready, but in a similar fashion, a strong showing from the passing game will likely put the Panthers in a stronger negotiating position if nothing else.
Stop Their Rushing Attack
Seahawks Rookie Running Back Rashaad Penny. Photo Credit: Seahawks.com
The Panthers’ rush defense this season has been something of an enigma, as they have shown the ability to shut down some of the very best running backs in the NFL but have also been plagued by gap discipline breakdowns and missed tackles. The Lions game was a perfect example – they actually didn’t do a bad job for the most part, but that was only after they allowed themselves to be carved apart by Kerryon Johnson on the Lions’ opening drive. This defense certainly has the talent to handle even the best running game, with arguably the best defensive tackle and linebacker groups in the NFL, some decent defensive ends – in terms of run defense at least – and corners who aren’t afraid to make a tackle or two in the run game. This is not a talent issue. Instead, the issues are largely to do with discipline, and when this is your job, that is not something that should be acceptable.
In terms of what the Seahawks have to offer, they don’t have a running back of the caliber of Johnson, but they have shown that their three-player rotation can be successful, ranking eighth in the NFL in yards-per-carry – their yards-per-game stats are so high due to the large number (second-most in the NFL) of carries. This is particularly important as Russell Wilson appears to have regressed somewhat in recent years and for the Seahawks offense to put up large numbers, they are likely going to have to lean on their running game to a reasonable degree. What that does mean, however, is if the Panthers can limit the Seahawks on the ground without having to stack the box, they will give themselves a strong chance of limiting the Seahawks’ offensive output. Holding the Lions to 20 points last week was far from a terrible performance, but the Seahawks offer a little more of a threat than the Lions did – a lot of that is built upon their rushing game.
Put It All Together
The NFL is ultimately a team sport, and as much as this game can be broken down into different aspects, at some point it all has to come together into a combined performance. Too often this season, the story has been about whether one aspect of the Panthers could bail out or drag down another, with most of the Panthers’ issues this season ultimately coming down to self-inflicted wounds. The defense has shown the ability to shut down high powered attacks such as the Bengals and the Buccaneers – at least at times – and the offense showed against the Ravens what they are capable of doing to good defenses. However, if this teams wants to be seen as anything close to a real contender come the playoffs, they need to show that they can put those things together – Sunday wouldn’t be a bad time to start.
If this offense and defense both perform to what they have shown to be capable of at times this season, this team should easily beat a frankly inferior Seahawks team, but the same has been true of every game so far this season, with the Saints being the only team on the schedule who the Panthers should really be seen as underdogs against from a talent standpoint.
This is a Panthers team running the risk of being defined by their inability to perform to their talent level on a consistent basis – for a team under new ownership, time is running out to show that that isn’t the case.
