The Passing Game
The Panthers ran the ball out of 11 personnel more than the NFL average, but they passed the ball out of it even more than that, using that formation to throw the ball on over 80% of plays for every down.
While they are actually at the NFL average of 82% usage on fourth downs, they were well above the league average on the other downs, using 11 personnel 81%, 84% and 95% on the first three downs respectively, compared to league averages of 68%, 72% and 87%.
On first downs, this additional usage was reflected in their success rate, with an efficiency of 59% compared to a league average of 53%, whereas on second and third downs they are almost exactly on the average, with efficiencies of 46% and 36% respectively compared to league averages of 47% and 35%. While the sample sizes are once again very small for fourth downs, the fact the Panthers managed a conversion rate of 35% compared to a league average of 47% is something to be aware of as well.
The other formations the Panthers used with anything like regularity were 12, 21 and 22 personnel. The first of these they used on both first and second downs at 13% and 9% respectively, with both rates being slightly below the league averages of 19% and 15%. On first down, they were slightly below the league average, with an efficiency of 50% compared to 53%, but on second downs they really struggled to throw the ball out of this formation, with an efficiency of 36%, well below the league average 49%.
Why the Panthers struggled to pass from this formation is hard to say, but the fact that they used it below the league average was probably sensible given these struggles.
Interestingly, they used 22 personnel on 18% of their fourth down passing attempts, well above the league average of 2%, though this was supported by their 100% conversion rate, above the league average of 80%. However, as the sample sizes for this are very small, it’s probably once again wisest not to try and extrapolate too much from this.
The Panthers also used 21 personnel on first and third downs – 3% usage and 1% respectively – which is below the league average rates of 8% and 2% respectively. They were also below the league average efficiencies in both cases with rates of 25% and 0% compared to league averages of 59% and 37%. Finally, they also threw out of 13 personnel on first down 3% of the time, 1% above the league average and at a decent efficiency of 75% as well; compared to a league average of 53%. Given how much they struggled to run the ball out of this predominantly rushing formation, however, it’s probably hard to scale up this success rate to a larger sample size.
The only formation used significantly more heavily around the NFL and which wasn’t used at all by the Panthers was that of 12 personnel on third and fourth downs. The Panthers ran the ball a lot in these situations from this formation, but they also struggled to throw the ball from this formation on earlier downs, so it is not clear whether this is something they should explore doing or not. If they continue to look to run the ball in these situations from this grouping, they will have to be willing to throw the ball from it as well at times in order to prevent teams from disregarding this as an option pre-snap.
Really, a lot of time could be spent examining every last stat, but the Panthers’ passing game is so dominated by 11 personnel, and while Norv Turner will undoubtedly look to tinker somewhat in his second season with the team, it should be expected that the Panthers continue to rely on this grouping in both aspects of the game. Given the emergence of Ian Thomas as a legitimate option at tight end and the apparent desire to give carries to people not named McCaffrey, it will be interesting to see what the Panthers do in 2019, but expect to see a lot of 11 personnel.
