Tre Boston
Tre Boston signed yet another one year prove-it deal with the Panthers, having signed previous similar deals with both the Cardinals and the Chargers and now is likely looking to find a longer-term contract, either with the Panthers or elsewhere. What should also be clear from the past couple of years is that there is undeniably a market for a player of Boston’s quality, but that market might not be as high as Boston would like. What also won’t have helped Boston is that lack of interception production this season – he had just his first interception of the season in Week 9 against the Titans – and lack of ball production in general, with just six passes defended. This doesn’t mean that he’s been terrible in coverage, but just that this hasn’t translated into easily observable measurables.
However, given his historic ball production and his continued solid play to this point, it is likely that Boston still gets a reasonable deal – given that he will only just have turned 28 at the start of next season, it should be expected that this is for a reasonable length of time. Possibly the best comparison might be the deal that Micah Hyde got in Buffalo a couple of years ago, after a few years of good, but not exceptional play in Green Bay. Hyde got a five-year, $30m dollar deal, and something not hugely dissimilar seems appropriate for Boston.
Don’t rule out Boston waiting until training camp for yet another one-year deal, though.
Predicted Contract: 4 years, $22m
Ross Cockrell
Ross Cockrell might have missed all of the 2018 season, but his play for most of this season has been really very impressive; while he has bounced around a fair amount to this point in his career, it should be expected that he is able to improve upon the deal he signed back in 2018 when he once again hits the open market. So far this season, Cockrell already has two picks to go with six passes defended and is one of the best cornerbacks in the league in terms of passer rating against, albeit aided by comparatively few targets. Given he will turn 29 before next season, it is unlikely that anybody offers him a long-term deal, but it seems likely that he gets a solid payday.
Somebody who might make sense as a comparison, both in terms of the level of statistical production and the slight hesitation some teams might have regarding their recent injurybr histories, is Bashaud Breeland. Breeland signed a one-year, $2m contract with the Chiefs this offseason, but given his more significant injury history, it is likely that Cockrell is able to improve upon that both in terms of length and size, even if he doesn’t have quite the profile of Breeland and is also a couple of years older.
Predicted Contract: 3 year, $12m.
Daryl Williams
Two year ago, Daryl Williams was coming off a season which saw him named second team All-Pro and was the darling of PFF, among others. However, having missed almost the entirety of the 2018 season due to injury, and then been moved around the line and eventually benched for a sixth-round rookie in 2019, it is likely he probably is not going to get the contract he thought he might. There were strong signs of this a year ago, when he returned to the Panthers on a prove-it deal worth a little over $5m.
It is unclear whether the lack of apparent market for Williams in free agency last year was because he was coming off an injury or because NFL teams didn’t have him rated anywhere nearly as highly as various media bodies, and as a result, it is hard to know whether he will get a bigger contract having proven he is healthy or a smaller one having lost his job. While it’s hard to claim this is a fool-proof estimation, it seems unlikely that somebody who ended the season as a backup is likely to earn a bumper payday, and so Williams will likely get a contract either as a good depth piece, or as a player to compete for a starting job in camp. He’ll likely have to prove himself again in 2020, it just may be elsewhere.
Predicted Contract: 1 year, $3m
Bruce Irvin
Like Mario Addison, Bruce Irvin is also likely to see a smaller contract than his production would suggest based on the fact that he will be turning 33 before the start of next season – as a player who has relied heavily on his athleticism to this point, his production is only likely to decrease going forward. However, unlike Addison, Irvin hasn’t been exceptionally productive despite his age in recent years, certainly in terms of sacks, and that was reflected in the fact that he signed a one-year, $4m contract with the Panthers a year ago. Even with his production ramping up over the past month, what might Irvin get on the open market?
Possibly the best comparison for Irvin might be Clay Matthews, as both are more classical 3-4 OLBs than 4-3 DEs. In the two seasons prior to signing with the Rams this offseason, Matthews had 11 sacks and 33 QB hits; Irvin has 10 sacks and 22 QB hits in the last season-and-a-half; with Matthews also being 33 to start the first season of his contract. Matthews got a two-year, $9.25m contract, and while I think Irvin might get a little less than that, it certainly seems to be of the correct order of magnitude.
Predicted Contract: 2 years, $8m
Vernon Butler
When somebody gets drafted in the first round, it’s often hard for fan bases – and by extension, teams – to not see the outcomes as a binary choice between star and bust. However, in a lot of instances, what teams actually end up with is something in between – that is exactly what Butler seems to be. He is not the star he was drafted to be, but he’s still a useful piece for a team and can either offer high-level rotational value or be a competent, if unspectacular, starter. But what is that worth?
Well, for Butler there’s always going to be a bit of hesitation, as his most productive year is both his contract year and the first year where he has had a chance to start with the injury to Short. The numbers are also quite mixed for Butler, as while he does have four sacks, he only has two TFLs and four QB hits. If teams pay him based just on his sack production – especially if he can add another one or two in the second half of the season – he could get a larger deal, but he is probably looking for something similar to what Chris Smith got from the Browns.
Smith was quite a lot older than Butler, but he had put up similar sack numbers in his one season with the Bengals – albeit with more QB hits – and in return got a three-year, $12m contract in Cleveland. Butler likely doesn’t get quite that much due to his lower sack production, but could see a longer deal due to his age.
Predicted Contract: 4 years, $12m.
The Panthers aren’t, as you might have already been able to tell, going to be able to bring back all of these players.
However, they are in a situation where, if there are a couple of players they think they have to get back, they should be able to do so while also filling out the rest of the roster. Depending on where they think they are as a roster in terms of competing for a Super Bowl – which will likely have everything to do with the quarterback situation – they could either look to bring back players who are only going to be of use in the short term or let older veterans walk in order to make sure they bring back the players who can be part of the organization for the longer term.
Either way, we’ll find out soon enough.
