Step Three: Score Some Points
As much as people want to point at the defense’s issues during their losing streak – and not without reason – the Panthers have also been pretty disappointing on offense – a team that averaged 27.5 points during their 6-2 start has only managed 20.8 during their five-game skid; you don’t need me to tell you that’s a touchdown less.
Not to mention that 27 points would have won them three of those five games.
Over the past five games, the Panthers have managed to exceed 21 points just once – the Saints have been held under 21 points exactly once this season and for the Panthers to stand any reliable chance of winning they are going to need to score more than 20.8 points – ideally quite a bit more.
The Saints have actually managed to flip their defensive numbers from last season, and are now one of the very best run defenses in the world – to reciprocate this, they have managed to fall off a cliff against the pass. It’s not because their pass rush has vanished – they rank sixth in the NFL in sack percentage, but only four teams have allowed higher completion percentages on the season, and only four have allowed more yards per completion. These are very promising numbers, but it should be noted that two of the three teams that rank worse than the Saints in terms of yards-per-attempt are teams that the Panthers have lost to in the past month; so how can the Panthers take advantage of the Saints porous pass defense?
The Panthers have a lot of positives on offense, but there are two real concerns at this point – their issues in pass protection and Cam Newton’s clear shoulder injury. To have success against the Saints, the Panthers will need to get the ball out quickly and take advantage of the fact that they have a number of receiving options who can do damage after the catch. This doesn’t mean you have to run receiver screens every other play or fall back on jet sweeps to get pseudo-catches, but rather to focus on quick-hitting routes aimed at generating early separation against man coverage; slants would be a good start.
This isn’t a complex plan for beating the Saints, but at the end of the day they aren’t a complex team for the most part, just a very efficient one. If the Panthers can put a few spanners in the Saints’ methodical offensive machine and score a few points of their own then they’ll be in with a shot near the end – somewhere they’ve been the past four weeks and failed. It might seem insane to be talking about playoffs at 6-7, but as with 2014, the Panthers do have a chance if they win the games ahead of them.
If they beat the Saints on Monday then it really will be game on for the rest of the season – let’s see if they can pull it off.
