The Panthers’ game against the Buccaneers on Sunday is, on paper, somewhat of a formality. The Buccaneers are 4-10, well out of the playoff race and coming off a short week having played the Falcons on Monday night. What’s more, the Bucs have won just one road game all season and have lost their last four games. So the game’s in the bag, then? Light the fireworks and let’s have a Merry Christmas? Well, no, because as history has taught us, every team has a chance to win every game on any given Sunday. The Panthers must focus on a few things to ensure they’re not looking past the Bucs to a New Years Eve matchup with the Falcons.
Offensive Outlook
The Buccaneers are not a particularly good defensive team and, while injury has played some part in that, the Bucs don’t exactly enter Sunday’s game in the best of health. They rank 26th in both total defense and pass defense, though they do rank marginally better (14th) against the run. For the season, the Panthers rank 13th in passing offense, fifth in rush offense and 13th in total offense, and while none of those numbers are hugely impressive, they would be much better were it not for a terribly slow start to the season; in the past seven games, they’re first in rushing, fifth in scoring, and have thrown the fewest interceptions in the NFL.
Oh, and all this weight on the scales tilting the game towards the Panthers is before examining the list of injured Buccaneers defenders.
Justin Evans, Adarius Glanton, Vernon Hargreaves, Noah Spence and Stevie Tu’ikolovatu are all out for the season. Robert Ayers hasn’t practiced all week and Lavonte David, Gerald McCoy, Ryan Russell and Ryan Smith have all been limited. While most of those limited will likely play on Sunday, this is not a defense operating at its best. With that being said, there are still players that the Panthers should watch out for. Enter Gerald McCoy.
McCoy is one of the better defensive linemen in the NFL, and even though he is struggling with a bicep injury, he has the potential to be a factor in both the rushing and passing games. With Trai Turner, the player usually tasked with facing McCoy, still in the concussion protocol, the Panthers will be relying on Amini Silatolu to corral the Pro Bowl defensive tackle. While Silatolu wasn’t as poor as some feared against the Packers, asking him to block McCoy throughout the game would probably be a stretch. If the Panthers want to capitalize on a suspect Buccaneers defense throughout the game, they will need to first ensure that McCoy is dealt with; expect Ryan Kalil and/or Daryl Williams to be asked to double McCoy throughout much of the game.
Another area of slight concern for the Panthers are the injuries to Devin Funchess and Russell Shepard. While Funchess is expected to play, with Curtis Samuel already lost for the season, this could mean an increase in snaps for Brenton Bersin and Kaelin Clay. Shepard, by all accounts, isn’t expected to play and, having struggled with drops throughout the season, could struggle to regain his starting role if Clay and/or Bersin play well on Sunday.
Damiere Byrd continued on his road to a starting spot against the Packers with two touchdowns including a spectacular grab in the back of the endzone. Given his elite speed, he offers the Panthers’ roster something different than the other receivers; the ability to take the top off a defense. If, like Ted Ginn before him, he can use this speed to create separation underneath as well, then he could well see the majority of the snaps alongside Funchess going forwards.
Brenton Bersin is hardly a new face, but the ever-dependable receiver should not be underestimated. Bersin might not be an exceptional athlete, but he is an excellent route runner and has good hands. While he is unlikely to wreak havoc against man coverage, he is more than capable of picking up consistent yardage if left alone against zone coverage. Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen will likely do their usual job against the Buccaneers’ linebackers and safeties, but if Byrd and Bersin can step up, then the Panthers have a chance to put up big numbers offensively on Sunday.
Defensive Domination
The Panthers’ defense currently ranks eighth in the NFL and seventh against the pass but just 17th against the run. This highly uncharacteristic performance against the run has largely been result of a small number of long runs rather than allowing consistent yardage, but that is still an area of concern. Conversely, the Buccaneers have three running backs with over 50 carries this season, none of whom are averaging four yards per carry. This game gives the Panthers’ defense a chance to correct some of the gap discipline issues it has had throughout the season.
If the Panthers can’t contain the Buccaneers’ running backs on Sunday against a banged-up offensive line, that should start some alarm bells ringing. While this Panthers’ defense does a lot of things well, gap discipline has been a consistent issue, going back to the Week 3 game against the Saints. This arguably lost them both games against the Saints and, if left unfixed, will almost certainly be their undoing in the playoffs.
On paper, the Buccaneers passing game is one of the ten best in the NFL, but three of their top five receivers are currently injured. OJ Howard is out for the season and neither DeSean Jackson or Cameron Brate have practiced this week, leaving the Buccaneers with Mike Evans, Adam Humphries and Charles Godwin as their main receiving threats. While Humphries in the slot could cause difficulties for the Panthers, both Evans and Godwin are a favorable match-up for the Panthers, with their strength and size being countered well by Bradberry and Worley. If the Panthers can avoid mistakes then they have a real chance of shutting down the Buccaneers passing game entirely and forcing Jameis Winston into making some of those errors he is prone to making.
In terms of a tactical approach for the Panthers on Sunday, the key should be to avoid mistakes and to look for consistency instead of trying to hit the big play. This Buccaneers team, especially with all the injuries, should be inferior to the Panthers in almost every facet of the game, and their main hope for staying in this game would be for the Panthers to make mistakes that keep them in it. That being said, this Panthers team all but gifted a game to the Bears earlier this season, with a huge number of mistakes on offense. If the Panthers win, they guarantee themselves a playoff spot. That should be focus enough for them to treat this game with the respect it deserves, enabling them to come away with what should be a relatively easy win.
