Through thirteen weeks of the season, the Vikings have been one of, if not the best, teams in the NFL. Unfortunately for the Panthers, defeating the Vikings on Sunday could have a significant impact of their playoff chances; with the Falcons and Seahawks on their heels in the race for a Wild Card spot, the Panthers cannot afford to not be at their best, and this piece will look at what that best might look like.
Stopping The Run
Barring a thirty-yard effort from Latavius Murray, the Falcons were able to keep the Vikings in check on the ground in their narrow loss last week. That has been a theme for the Vikings since losing Dalvin Cook to a torn ACL in Week 4; if the Panthers can also limit the Vikings running game, they’ll have a chance to force Case Keenum to make plays from the pocket on long third downs, not something that has been a strength of his. With that in mind, the Panthers should look at how the Vikings were able to spring Murray free for that big run, and why the Panthers gave up big runs against the Saints.
On the following run by Murray several things go wrong for the Falcons. First, they completely overcommit to the far side of the field with multiple defenders taking the outside gap leaving the gap over left guard free for Murray to run into. The near side of the field is so poorly defended that Murray is able to hit the wrong gap and still get away with it for a positive run.
The other thing that should be noted from this play is how Murray was able to add significantly more yards to the run due to a missed tackle in the secondary. While missed tackles do happen, when they occur on the second level they can turn first downs into touchdowns. Given that this game is expected to be somewhat of a defensive showcase, loose tackling could give the Vikings a much needed chance to put points on the board.
The most notable run the Panthers gave up against the Saints was the long run by Ingram, shown below:
It isn’t hugely clear who exactly to blame for what happens here, but what happens is a breakdown in gap discipline. While Short ends up on the floor after the double team, he, Shaq Thompson, Wes Horton, Julius Peppers and Kurt Coleman all appear to get in their gaps; the issue is with the two inside linebackers and Star. Star gets doubled initially with the guard then doing a good job to get to Kuechly. Kuechly, however, is able to force Ingram back inside, where either Star or Mayo should have made the play.
Whether Mayo should have spotted the double team and hit the gap or Star should have done a better job of beating the initial double is hard to tell without more detailed scheme knowledge, but breakdowns in gap discipline like this are the easiest way for offenses to pull off big runs; that should be something that the Panthers focus on addressing before the Vikings game, especially with how often both Ron Rivera and Steve Wilks have brought the topic up to the media this week.
The other run of over twenty yards by the Saints (shown above) exemplifies both of the things that went wrong for the Falcons on Murray’s long run: gap discipline and poor tackling. This is a well-executed play for the Saints, and would have picked up some yardage regardless, but mistakes from the Panthers are what makes this play a touchdown. First, while they do a good job of dealing with the Saints counter at the line of scrimmage, both Kuechly and Adams shoot the outside gap, allowing Kamara to cut back inside of them; this is inexcusable from two veterans.
This is then topped off by Coleman missing a tackle in space, admittedly against the elusive Kamara. This is a good play by the Saints, but the mental mistake on the overpursuit is completely avoidable. If the Panthers can avoid making these basic mistakes then they have every chance of stifling a fairly unexceptional Vikings running attack.
Make Keenum Make Plays
Photo: Brace Hemmelgarn/USA Today Sports
When the Vikings asked Keenum to throw the ball on third down against the Falcons they went three-of-eight; none of the conversions were of five yards or further. While this is admittedly a small sample size, it is largely fair to say that while Keenum has been better than expected for the Vikings this season, he is still a long way from an elite quarterback. The Vikings do a good job of scheming receivers open using hard run fakes and misdirection, but if the Panthers are able to shut down the Vikings running game, they have every chance of keeping Keenum under control as well.
If they can force Keenum to throw the ball on long third down then he has a tendency to make mistakes, either by taking sacks or occasionally throwing interceptable passes. Additionally, as Keenum doesn’t have a huge arm, the Panthers will (hopefully) be able to play a lot of press which will not only help against the run but will take away the short passes the Keenum and the Vikings rely upon.
The once concern that the Panthers should have with the Vikings passing game is Adam Thielen. Thielen might not be the biggest name in football, but he is fundamentally sound with good hands and nice routes. When he works out of the slot, he will have a distinct size advantage over Munnerlyn and whether or not Shaq Thompson is healthy might be of some significance when it comes to the Panthers’ plan to defend the slot receiver.
If the Vikings are able to run the ball, the Panthers are going to struggle to keep pace as this opens up their screen and play-action games. However, should the Panthers be able to stuff the run, they’ll have every chance of keeping the Vikings passing game in check.
How to Score Some Points
While this game is unlikely to be a shootout, the Panthers will have to put up some points against one of the best defenses in football to win this game. The Vikings have a lot of speed on the second level and get after the quarterback effectively; while the Panthers are highly unlikely to be able to throw the ball around against the Vikings, they might have a chance on the ground.
While the Vikings speed allows them to shut down outside runs and option plays very effectively, they don’t have the size to necessarily deal with an inside running attack. If the Panthers are to have success in this area, they are likely going to need a big game from Jonathan Stewart, who has been having somewhat of a down season so far this year. The Panthers abandoned the inside running game too easily against the Saints, as Stewart was actually having one of his best games of the season; if they want to avoid Cam running for his life against the Vikings pass rush, they are going to need to commit to a downhill running game which will hopefully keep them ahead of the chains, on schedule, and set up the possibility of play-action shots down the field.
Don’t expect the Panthers to come out and put fifty on the Vikings; this is likely to be a largely defensive battle on offense. This is a very talented, if inconsistent, offense and with Greg Olsen likely back, they should be seen as having a real shot to win this game.
