Welcome to the Week 10 edition of Panthers Picks & Props, where our friend Cort Smith will run down his favorite Panthers-related bets and fantasy plays each week. Cort is a lead writer at RotoViz and the founder of Bet the Prop, a site specializing in the emergent player prop betting market. As of July 26, sports gambling is legal at sportsbooks in Cherokee, North Carolina – even though the sportsbook isn’t technically open up there, that’s not to mention the myriad of online options emerging – we’re not here to judge, we’re here to make you some money.
The Panthers head to Lambeau Field for a date with the Packers, a team that will be wary of another letdown coming their worst effort the season in a loss last week against the Chargers. Carolina has been a strong road team this year with a 3-1 record – right in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race, they’ll be highly motivated as well.
This game sets up well for two Panthers players in particular; those two will be the focus of this week’s Picks & Props piece. We took a loss on our only prop selection last week, as the Panthers defense did great work against Derrick Henry – however, we did encourage you to use both DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey (duh) in DFS and both had good days. Our record in this space is now 9-5, hitting at a profitable 64.3%.
We have two prop plays for you this week, followed by our favorite DFS recommendation of Week 10.
Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-102 @ FanDuel)
Samuel’s elite underlying usage, combined with a matchup against a Packers secondary that is extremely prone to the big play and also a little banged up this week, all conspire to put him in a great spot this week.
Kyle Allen has now fed the third-year wide receiver at least 100 Air Yards in three-straight games. The only other WR who can make that claim? Mike Evans.
Samuel’s now cracked 100 air yards in five of eight games this year.
If he’s fed another 100 air yards again this week, Samuel has an excellent chance of hitting this over.
The Packers have a reputation as a strong secondary, but they’ve been leaky of late and are highly exploitable by a player with Samuel’s skillset.
Green Bay has allowed:
- The eighth-most yards to opposing WRs
- 17.4 yards per reception to WRs, worst in the league
- 11 receptions of 40+ yards, worst in the league
Samuel is the Panthers’ best deep threat with an average of 15.5 air yards per target.
The Packers secondary won’t be at full strength Sunday, either — safety Adrian Amos and Jaire Alexander, the corner who would line up against Samuel most often on Sunday, are both listed as questionable.
All of this bodes well for Samuel to surpass this modest 47.5 yardage over/under.
Under 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ Bovada)
Teams facing the Panthers have targeted the TE position just 40 times (5 per game), the fifth-lowest mark in the league.
Combine that with Graham’s declining ability to get downfield and stretch the seam, and you have a tasty recipe for the under.
Graham has gone under this mark in three of his last four games. Last week he had just six total air yards on his four targets — that’s hard to do.
Look for Graham’s role to continue to dwindle with the return of star WR Davante Adams, who’s commanded 10.7 targets per game over the last two seasons. The 32-year old Graham is a longshot to have any impact on this game.
Cash Game Play
Christian McCaffrey ($10,500 on DraftKings)
Last week, we noted that McCaffrey’s price had risen to $10,000 on DraftKings for the first time. It wasn’t enough to scare us off of fantasy’s best player then, and neither is a bump of $500.
Especially this week, as McCaffrey finally gets a good matchup after proving matchup-proof against some very tough defenses in recent weeks.
The Packers have given up 266.4 DK points to opposing RBs this year, the fourth-most in the league. Fellow feature backs Josh Jacobs and Melvin Gordon have both posted elite finishes against this defense over the last few games.
None of those guys are on CMC’s level. The Packers have been bleeding vs the run of late all year long, allowing the third-most rushing yards to opposing backs. I expect McCaffrey to shoulder a heavy load and be highly efficient against this suspect unit.
With a higher ceiling than he’s had in tough matchups in recent weeks, he’s also in play in GPP formats as well.