Welcome to the Week 11 edition of Panthers Picks & Props, where our friend Cort Smith will run down his favorite Panthers-related bets and fantasy plays each week. Cort is a lead writer at RotoViz and the founder of Bet the Prop, a site specializing in the emergent player prop betting market. As of July 26, sports gambling is legal at sportsbooks in Cherokee, North Carolina – even though the sportsbook isn’t technically open up there, that’s not to mention the myriad of online options emerging – we’re not here to judge, we’re here to make you some money.
The Week 11 matchup between the Panthers and Falcons checks in as the third-highest totaled game this week, with bookmakers offering up a projected point total of 49.5. There is shootout potential here, thanks to the plethora of elite pass-catching talent on both sides of the ball, so that’s where we’re going to focus our attention this week. I’ll lay out a prop play I love on D.J. Moore, as well as some notes on his outlook in DFS this week.
I’ll also explore what looks like a blow-up spot for Calvin Ridley for prop-betting purposes, before wrapping with some DFS notes on Christian McCaffrey, Curtis Samuel, and Kyle Allen.
We’re looking to bounce back after some overdue bad luck last week. We went 0-2 after Curtis Samuel couldn’t convert on some heavy usage, while Jimmy Graham continued to see light usage, but still managed to break free for one big gain and sink us.
Let’s kick things off with a look at the best 22-year old WR in the league.
D.J. Moore
Over 5.5 Receptions (-118 @ DraftKings)
There was a bit a dip when Kyle Allen first took over at QB, but Moore has resumed his role as one of the most reliable volume accumulators in the league.
Since week five, the prodigious sophomore ranks:
- 10th in targets among all WRs (9.6/game)
- 7th in receptions (6.8)
- 11th in yards (84.6)
He’s now registered double-digit targets in three of his last four and five of nine on the season.
This might be the best non-Tampa Bay matchup he’ll face all season. A healthy Matt Ryan usually forces the opposition to up their pace, and indeed, the Falcons have allowed 13.7 receptions per game to opposing WRs, the 10th-most in football.
That sets up well for Moore to hit this six-reception threshold for the seventh time in 10 games this season. Especially as he’ll match up against Isaiah Oliver about 60% of the time — Oliver is allowing a 70% completion rate, and on average, gives up nearly 10 yards every time he’s targeted. Per PFF, Moore vs Oliver is fifth-biggest WR/CB mismatch of Week 11.
Moore should be able to do as he pleases against Atlanta, and unless Carolina gets up big early on, he’s likely to have the target volume to easily hit this number.
D.J. Moore’s DFS Slant
With so much unrealized opportunity, we’ve recommended both Panthers wide receivers as GPP plays in DFS in this space.
They’ve haven’t disappointed, but they haven’t had their eruption game either. Moore, in particular, has had some of the worst TD luck in the league. Per RotoViz’s Michael Dubner, Moore should be in the top 20 in TDs since Week 5 based on his usage so far, yet he hasn’t scored once.
Only Julio Jones and Mike Williams are having worse luck in that department.
Those kinds of numbers are always ripe for positive regression, and the Falcons offer the ideal get-right spot, allowing 12 TDs to opposing WRs in their nine games.
At a value price of $5,900 on DraftKings, make sure you’ve got Moore in a healthy share of your GPP lineups, and his reliable weekly role makes him cash game viable as well.
Calvin Ridley
Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-112 @ FanDuel)
The good news for Panthers fans is that No. 1 CB James Bradberry is expected to suit up and take on Julio Jones on Sunday.
But the rest of the secondary is banged up — Ross Cockrell is out and Donte Jackson (hip) is questionable, although Jackson did get in a limited practice on Friday. Even if Jackson plays, this is a good spot for the boom-or-bust Ridley, as he tallied 64 yards and 90 yards in this same matchup last year.
And that was with guys like Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper still in the lineup. The target tree has since been trimmed — Sanu is in New England while Hooper is out for several weeks.
Yes, Ridley disappointed in a similar spot last week (28 yards on three receptions vs NO), but the Falcons were also leading the entire game against the Saints, giving them the rare opportunity to lean on the run. Ridley also racked up 80 air yards in that one, so the underlying usage was there. Speaking of the run game, RB Devonta Freeman is also out, leaving Brian Hill as Atlanta’s only real option at the position, and thus putting even more on Matt Ryan’s plate.
From the shootout potential to the matchup, to the underlying usage metrics, all the conditions are there for Ridley to pop.
DFS Notes
- Christian McCaffrey’s price held steady at $10,500 this week on DK. It’s expensive, especially against an Atlanta team that’s been surprisingly good against RBs, allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points to the position. But he remains the top-projected player this week, and you need to pay up for CMC in at least some of your lineups.
- QB is a different story. The Falcons give up the sixth-most fantasy points to the position, putting Kyle Allen in play as a safe, low-cost option ($5,300) in cash games.
- Curtis Samuel ($5,300 on DK) was a flop last week despite finding the end zone. But he had another eight targets, and he eclipsed 100 air yards for the fourth-straight game. Samuel is now fifth among all WRs in air yards, and that kind of usage rarely goes unrewarded for long.
Panthers stacks are absolutely in play against this poor Falcons defense.
