Welcome to the Week 12 edition of the Panthers DFS Guide! I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! I’m willing to bet that your holiday was more entertaining and eventful than the Panthers offense in their 13-3 loss to Baltimore. Speaking of bets, the Panthers probably didn’t help you win any of your DFS contests last week. But hey, at least they covered the spread!
Before we look into this week’s matchup against Denver – one that may set offensive football back 50 years – let’s review the limited action from Week 11.
WEEK 11 RECAP
Terrace Marshall Jr
The Ravens knew that they couldn’t allow D’Onta Foreman to get going, so they stacked the box to force Baker Mayfield to throw to beat them. Spoiler alert, Mayfield continued his horrid play and the Panthers offense was horrendous across the board.
Marshall was the top fantasy point producer last week, catching 3 passes for 76 yards. It should be noted that most of that production was within the final two minutes of the game, where he caught 2 passes for 52 yards.
The Panthers will continue their game of QB roulette on Sunday as Sam Darnold makes his season debut. Can we consider Darnold at all? Let’s take a look at the slate!
WEEK 12 MAIN SLATE OVERVIEW & POSSIBLE PANTHER OPTIONS
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the games with the highest totals are:
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals: O/U 48.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-4): O/U 47.5
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-14): O/U 47
The games with the lowest totals are:
Denver Broncos (-2) at Carolina Panthers: O/U 36
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-6): O/U 38.5
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commnaders (-4): O/U 40.5
All odds are as of Saturday morning.
DFS projected ownership notes
As of Saturday morning, the following players are projected to be the most owned at their positions in large field tournaments:
QB: Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson (FD)
RB: Jeff Wilson Jr (mega chalk on all sites), Rachaad White, Kenneth Walker III, Latavius Murray, Samaje Perine, Austin Ekeler, James Conner, Alvin Kamara (FD)
WR: Garrett Wilson, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, Terry McLaurin, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel (FD), DJ Moore (FD)
TE: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst, Greg Dulcich (FD)
DST: Kansas City Chiefs (mega chalk on DraftKings), New York Jets (DK), Denver Broncos (FD)
Game odds per DraftKings Sportsbook (as of Saturday morning):
O 36 (-115)
U 36 (-105)
OUT: WR Jerry Jeudy, WR KJ Hamler, DT Jonathan Harris, FS K’Waun Williams
QUESTIONABLE: DE Jake Martin, TE Andrew Beck
OUT: FS Myles Hartsfield, DT Matthew Ioannidis, OLB Cory Littleton
DOUBTFUL: TE Giovanni Ricci, QB P.J. Walker
QUESTIONABLE: WR Terrace Marshall Jr., TE Ian Thomas, TE Stephan Sullivan
Terrace Marshall Jr
Like last week, no Panther should be considered for cash games.
D’Onta Foreman: Foreman has been the epitome of a boom or bust player in fantasy football since the McCaffrey trade. He has had three excellent games and two absolute duds. Foreman was not pleased with his performance against Baltimore. He used a very nondescript four letter curse word to describe his play.
He’s looking to bounce back and the Broncos can be had on the ground. The Broncos have allowed an average of 115.3 rushing yards per game this season, which ranks 15th in the league. With Sam Darnold making his first regular season start, I cannot imagine the Panthers wanting him to drop back 30 times against the Denver secondary.
There are a number of running backs in better spots and overall game environments than Foreman. However, he does offer a ton of leverage as he isn’t on the radars of daily fantasy football players. Foreman is best suited for large field tournaments, especially if you’re making multiple lineups.
The Panthers passing attack: The Panthers/Broncos game opened with a total of 35 points, which was the lowest for an NFL game since 2019. Sam Darnold will be the third player to make a start at QB for the Panthers this season and this isn’t an ideal matchup.
The Broncos rank fourth against the pass in Football Outsiders Pass DVOA metric and fifth in Total DVOA.
D.J. Moore will likely see a lot of Pat Surtain. Terrace Marshall Jr. isn’t the worst punt in the world and he has the best matchup against Denver corner Damarri Mathis. With Darnold back in the fold, there’s just too much uncertainty to tap into with this group.
SINGLE GAME SHOWDOWN STRATEGY & POSSIBLE CAPTAIN/MVP PLAYS
DK CPT/FLEX SALARY
Greg Dulcich (DK only)
I made my thoughts on the Panthers passing game known earlier, but anything goes for a single game showdown. My favorite captain of this group is Foreman, as I do believe he’ll carry the load for the Panthers on Sunday.
While the Panthers have mismanaged the quarterback position as bad as possible, at least they are not stuck with Russell Wilson’s contract. For a single game showdown though, he’s still in play here for the top spot. If you think Wilson gets it done against the Panthers, you’ll likely want to pair him with two Broncos pass catchers.
The Broncos cut chronic fumbler Melvin Gordon this week, leaving Latavius Murray and Marlon Mack as the only running backs on the active roster. Mike Boone and the recently acquired Chase Edmonds are on IR. Murray should receive most of the work here.
Dulcich is an intriguing option at captain on DraftKings. He is tied for second on the team in target share since his debut in week 6.
If Sutton is lined up against C.J. Henderson more than Jaycee Horn on Sunday, then he could have a monstrous day. Henderson has given up a catch rate of 68% on the season.
POSSIBLE FLEX PLAYS
DK FLEX SALARY
Terrace Marshall Jr.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
If you’re playing Foreman as your captain, you likely do not want Sam Darnold in your lineup. Darnold can be used if you’re running Moore at the captain or MVP spot.
Both defenses are in play with how bad both offenses have played in 2022. Before finalizing your lineup, be sure to check out the wind report at the stadium as it pertains to both kickers. Right now, winds are projected around 10 to 15 miles per hour.
One situation to pay attention to is at tight end for Carolina. Three of their four active roster tight ends are on the injury report as of the time of this writing. Giovanni Ricci is doubtful while Ian Thomas and Stephen Sullivan are questionable. Ricci didn’t practice at all this week. Thomas didn’t practice on Thursday or Friday while Sullivan did not practice on Friday.
Thomas and Sullivan are dealing with an illness. If Colin Thompson gets called up from the practice squad on Saturday, there’s a good chance that one of Sullivan or Thomas aren’t playing.
Tremble would see a ton of snaps in this scenario and would definitely merit consideration for your showdown lineup. He doesn’t have the highest ceiling in the world, but a lot of opportunities would open up for him if the rest of the tight end room is ruled out.