Welcome to the week 14 edition of the Panthers DFS Guide! The Panthers are coming off the bye week hoping to make a run this year’s prestigious NFC South title. Baker Mayfield is officially gone and looked competent (for the time being) in sunny Los Angeles. Before we dive into week 14, let’s recap what happened in the Panthers last game prior to the bye week.
WEEK 12 RECAP
My call to fade the Panthers passing attack was a mixed bag.Sam Darnold only completed 11 out of 19 pass attempts for 164 yards. But, he did throw for a touchdown and rolled into the end zone for a rushing TD. D.J. Moore was the biggest beneficiary of Darnold’s return, corralling 4 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown.
The game script was ideal for D’Onta Foreman as the Panthers led throughout the game. He ran for 113 yards, but did not get any catches and wasn’t able to hit paydirt thanks to Darnold’s dime to Moore & the aforementioned rolling rushing touchdown.
While the Panthers & Broncos game was slow paced, that may change this week as they head up to Seattle. Let’s dive into the slate to see which Panthers may be viable for our lineups.
WEEK 14 MAIN SLATE OVERVIEW & POSSIBLE PANTHER OPTIONS
Slate Overview: The week 14 main slate consists of 10 games on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the games with the highest totals are:
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2): O/U 51.5
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5): O/U 46.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at New York Giants: O/U 45
The games with the lowest totals are:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5): O/U 37
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2): O/U 37
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5): O/U 41
All odds are as of Saturday morning.
DFS projected ownership notes
As of Saturday morning, the following players are projected to be the most owned at their positions in large field tournaments:
QB: Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen
RB: Derrick Henry, D’Andre Swift, Joe Mixon, Latavius Murray, Travis Etienne, Tony Pollard
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Adam Thielen, Garrett Wilson, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Chris Moore, D.J. Moore
TE: Greg Dulcich, T.J. Hockenson, Travis Kelce
DST: Dallas, Pittsburgh, Detroit (FD)
Game odds per DraftKings Sportsbook (as of Saturday morning)
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
QUESTIONABLE: OLB Cory Littleton, FS Myles Hartsfield, DT Matt Ioannidis, S Xavier Woods
QUESTIONABLE: WR DK Metcalf, RB Kenneth Walker III, RB DeeJay Dallas, TE Will Dissly, S Ryan Neal
PANTHER SALARIES BY SITE
Terrace Marshall Jr
D’Onta Foreman: In order for Foreman to vault you to the top of your tournaments (especially DraftKings), he has to hit paydirt as his involvement in the passing game is nearly nonexistent.
Since Christian McCaffrey was traded, Foreman has averaged 19.7 touches and 91.8 total yards per game. He has eclipsed 100 rushing yards four times.
Although he was dealing with a foot and rib ailment following the Broncos game, Foreman does not carry an injury designation and won’t be limited per Panthers interim head coach Steve Wilks.
The Panthers likely don’t want Sam Darnold to air it out 25-30 times in one of the more hostile environments in the league, so Foreman should continue to receive a ton of work in the rushing game.
The Seahawks are vulnerable on the ground as they rank 24th in Football Outsiders DVOA defensive rushing metric. Over their last four games, the Seahawks have allowed an average of 184.3 rushing yards per game. Even the Los Angeles Rams ran for 171 yards on this defense.
If you believe the Panthers will lead or control the tempo in this game, Foreman makes a great play in any format.
D.J. Moore: The stats do not lie, D.J. Moore’s best fantasy days have come with Sam Darnold under center.
With Sam Darnold back under center, D.J. Moore finished as the WR9, catching 4 of 6 passes (36.29% target share) for 103 yards & a TD
His 77.47% team air yard share & 107.17% WOPR led all players in Week 12
Data per @FTNFantasy Air Yards Tool:
🔗 https://t.co/7FhnZ7yAFy https://t.co/TGNidno248
— Sam Choudhury (@SC_FFB) November 30, 2022
In order to beat Seattle, the Panthers will likely need to score at least 24 to 30 points. Establish The Run’s Pat Thorman projects that the Panthers and Seahawks will be a pace up game, which would be a boon for the Panthers passing game.
ICYMI, checked out main-slate games to target and avoid from a play-volume perspective (and it’s ugly out there this week, folks) https://t.co/y5w6bABb5q pic.twitter.com/21yWMaRY6Q
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) December 8, 2022
Darnold is not afraid to fling the pigskin deep to Moore and he’s capable of making big plays against a young Seattle secondary. The Seahawks are 18th in Football Outsiders’s DVOA pass defense metric.
Sam Darnold: While there are better quarterback options on the slate, Darnold’s price makes him an attractive option in larger field tournaments. If this game turns into a shootout, Darnold will have to pass more than 19 times.
The other thing about Darnold is he does have the ability to produce on the ground. Darnold did run for 5 touchdowns in 2021 and he was not afraid to keep it on read option calls. On his rushing score last week, it was off a read option call.
I’m not sure if I’d run Darnold in single entry contests, but if you’re someone that runs a lot of lineups, I’d definitely have some exposure to Darnold.
Chuba Hubbard: If Foreman was limited or out, Hubbard would’ve been nearly a lock to play at his price. However, Foreman doesn’t carry an injury designation. Out of 24 red zone rush attempts, Foreman has received 20 of those while Hubbard has only gotten 4 such carries.
SINGLE GAME SHOWDOWN STRATEGY & POSSIBLE CAPTAIN/MVP PLAYS
DK CPT/FLEX SALARY
Kenneth Walker III (may not play, game time decision)
My favorite captains would be Lockett, Metcalf, Foreman or Moore. Metcalf was on the injury report but is expected to play. While Jaycee Horn is an excellent cover corner, Metcalf is one of the best in the league and can beat the best secondary players in the league.
Lockett has scored in five straight games and is capable of burning anyone on the field. There’s a good chance he primarily sees C.J. Henderson lined up across from him and you better believe the Seahawks will take multiple shots down the field to him.
If you think Foreman dominates this game, he makes for an excellent captain choice. You probably do not want to put Darnold in your lineup if you run Foreman at captain.
If you think the game turns into a shootout and put Moore at your captain spot, you’ll want to have Darnold paired with him.
POSSIBLE FLEX PLAYS
DK FLEX SALARY
Terrace Marshall Jr.
Tony Jones Jr
Travis Homer and Tony Jones Jr will split the Seahawks backfield work if both Walker & Deejay Dallas are ruled out. Homer will handle more of the passing work while Jones will be utilized in the running game.
Marshall only received three targets last week, but the Panthers weren’t forced to pass. He could receive more targets if the game turns into a shootout.
Fant and Goodwin have attractive prices and may be popular choices in order to fit the higher priced studs into their lineup.
The kickers for both teams are in play as both coaching staffs are not shy about kicking field goals.
If you think Sam Darnold has a bad game, the Seahawks defense is not a bad option here since they are priced up.
(Top Photo Via Chanelle Smith-Walker/Carolina Panthers)