Welcome to the Week 16 edition of the Panthers DFS Guide!

Leading up to their game against the Steelers in week 15, the Panthers were adamant about protecting the bank. Well, the bank was overrun by the opposition and the Steelers punished the Panthers on both lines of scrimmage and stole their lunch money in their 24-16 victory.

If you played D’Onta Foreman like myself, that decision likely bankrupted your lineup. Before we dive into the main Christmas Eve slate, let’s quickly recap the disaster at Bank of America Stadium last week.

Week 15 Recap

Player

DraftKings Points

FanDuel/Yahoo Points

D.J. Moore

18.3

15.8

Sam Darnold

13.2

13.2

Chuba Hubbard

9.7

8.2

Terrace Marshall Jr.

8.1

6.6

Tommy Tremble

4

3

Shi Smith

3.4

2.9

Panthers DST

1.0

1.0

D’Onta Foreman

0.9

0.9

The Panthers only ran 43 offensive plays in week 15, which was tied for dead last with the Rams (insert Baker Mayfield jokes). Running 43 plays and possessing the ball for only 23 minutes 49 seconds is fine if you’re scoring multiple touchdowns on long plays. Obviously that wasn’t the case here.

After getting bullied by the Ravens running game in week 14, the Steelers were not going to let D’Onta Foreman beat them. The Panthers ran it 16 times for a grand total of 21 yards. Foreman’s 10 carries resulted in 9 yards and 0.9 fantasy points. His matchup isn’t any easier this coming week (more on that later).

D.J. Moore bounced back after a rough showing in Seattle, securing 5 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown.

After a lackluster fantasy week, who can we turn to this week at the frozen confines of Bank of America Stadium? Let’s dive into the slate!

WEEK 16 MAIN SLATE OVERVIEW & POSSIBLE PANTHER OPTIONS

Slate Overview: The Week 16 main slate consists of 10 games on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo.

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the games with the highest totals are:

  1. Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-10): O/U 49

  2. New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5): O/U 48

  3. Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-5): O/U 47.5

The games with the lowest totals are:

  1. New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-2.5): O/U 32.5

  2. Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3): O/U 35.5

  3. Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5): O/U 35.5

All odds are as of Wednesday evening.

DFS projected ownership notes

As of Wednesday night, the following players are projected to be the most owned at their positions in large field tournaments:

Related:   So Where Do The Panthers Go From Here?

QB: Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Gardner Minshew III, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott

RB: Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Rhamondre Stevenson, Kenneth Walker III (FanDuel), D’Onta Foreman (FanDuel)

WR: Richie James Jr., Justin Jefferson, DK Metcalf, D.J. Moore, Terry McLaurin, CeeDee Lamb, Isaiah Hodgins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Terrace Marshall Jr. (DraftKings), Chris Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Curtis Samuel (FanDuel)

TE: Dalton Schultz, T.J. Hockenson, Daniel Bellinger, Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, Noah Fant

DST: Chiefs, Saints, Cowboys, Ravens, Browns (FanDuel), Saints (FanDuel)

Game odds per DraftKings Sportsbook (as of Wednesday evening)

 

Spread

Total

Moneyline

Detroit Lions

-3 (+100)

O 43.5 (-110)

-150

Carolina Panthers

+3 (-120)

U 43.5 (-110)

+130

PANTHER SALARIES BY SITE

Player

DraftKings Salary

FanDuel Salary

Yahoo Salary

D.J. Moore

$5,500

$7,100

$18

D’Onta Foreman

$5,300

$6,100

$19

Sam Darnold

$5,100

$6,700

$26

Chuba Hubbard

$4,900

$6,000

$14

Terrace Marshall Jr

$3,600

$5,600

$15

Panthers DST

$2,300

$3,500

$15

TOURNAMENT PLAYS

D’Onta Foreman: Foreman is angry about how he played last week, which marks the second such occurrence of the season.

If you recall, he was angry after running for only 24 yards on 11 carries at Baltimore back in November. He followed that up by running it 24 times for 113 yards the next week at home against the Broncos.

While their overall season numbers don’t suggest they’re a top run stuffing unit, the Lions run defense has been outstanding during their recent surge.

This nugget from Adam Pfeifer, Senior NFL Analyst at FTN Fantasy, should tell the story.

Foreman will be a more popular play on FanDuel thanks to his absurdly low price. He will be ignored by most of the field on DraftKings.

If you opt to play Foreman, you need the Panthers to be in control of the game. Per Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis, 41.4% of the Panthers offensive drives have gone 3-and-out, which is the highest mark in the league.

Foreman has a ceiling of 20 carries or more in positive game scripts. If the Lions jump all over the Panthers, he’s likely not going to be a differentiator in your lineups.

D.J. Moore: Since returning, Sam Darnold has targeted Moore 22.7% of the time. While their run defense has improved, the Lions are susceptible to giving up explosive plays through the air. They rank 22nd in Football Outsiders Pass Defense DVOA metric.

Related:   Lions vs. Panthers Week 16 Photo Gallery

His price makes him an attractive play, especially on DraftKings. If you think this game can go over the projected point total, pairing Moore with Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is not a bad mini game stack to have in your lineups.

FADES

Photo Credit: Chanelle Smith-Walker/Carolina Panthers

Ian Thomas/Tommy Tremble: As usual, the Panthers tight ends are dirt cheap on all sites. While the Lions have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to the tight end position, the floor for Thomas and Tremble is too low for a main slate that features premium options at the position.

 

DRAFTKINGS SINGLE GAME SHOWDOWN STRATEGY & POSSIBLE CAPTAIN PLAYS

Player

DK CAPTAIN SALARY

FLEX SALARY

Amon-Ra St. Brown

$17,100

$11,400

D.J. Moore

$15,600

$10,400

Jared Goff

$15,300

$10,200

Sam Darnold

$14,400

$9,600

D’Onta Foreman

$11,700

$7,800

Jamaal Williams

$10,800

$7,200

Favorite Captains: St. Brown, Moore, Foreman

Moore/Foreman: I outlined my thoughts on Foreman and Moore earlier. If you play Moore at the captain spot, be sure to play Darnold in one of your flex spots. Foreman has a nice single game showdown price, but could be ignored if the field thinks the Panthers will be in a negative game script. If you think the Panthers will control the game against the Lions, Foreman is an excellent captain choice.

St. Brown: With the assumption of rational coaching, Amon-Ra St. Brown should be shadowed by Jaycee Horn the entire game.

If you’re into revenge or motivation narratives, there is one in this particular game. St. Brown can recite each of the 16 wide receivers that were taken ahead of him in the 2021 NFL Draft, including their school.

One of those wide receivers plays for the Panthers, that being Terrace Marshall Jr.

For his standards, St. Brown has had two pedestrian efforts over the last two weeks as he scored 15.2 and 13.4 DraftKings points against the Jets and Vikings. He still commanded 19 combined targets in both games and got two total rushing attempts. He’ll be a focal point for the Lions and will be the most popular captain option in cash and tournament lineups.

Related:   So Where Do The Panthers Go From Here?

Darnold: Darnold would be a contrarian option at captain. If you play Darnold at captain, you’ll want him to score a rushing touchdown or throw two or more to multiple receivers. As noted earlier, the Lions can be torched in the passing game.

Goff: Goff would be in play as captain if you believe he throws multiple touchdowns to different receivers. Goff has been much better at home than on the road. Here are his splits for the season:

Home: 20 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 106.9 QB Rating

Road: 3 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 82.5 QB Rating

Williams: Williams is in play as captain if you believe he scores multiple touchdowns. Williams has 21 rushing attempts inside the 5 yard line this season and 11 of those went for touchdowns. He has 46 carries in the red zone alone, which is tops in the league.

POSSIBLE FLEX PLAYS

LIONS

FLEX SALARY

PANTHERS

FLEX SALARY

D’Andre Swift

$9,000

Chuba Hubbard

$6,600

DJ Chark Jr

$6,400

Terrace Marshall Jr

$5,200

Josh Reynolds

$5,400

Eddy Pineiro

$4,000

Lions DST

$5,000

Panthers DST

$3,400

Brock Wright

$4,600

Shi Smith

$1,400

Jameson Williams

$4,400

Tommy Tremble

$800

Michael Badgley

$4,200

Laviska Shenault Jr.

$200

Kalif Raymond

$3,000

Ian Thomas

$200

Justin Jackson

$2,000

Raheem Blackshear

$200

Laviska Shenault Jr. is clearly mispriced and will be one of the more popular salary saving plays for the single game contest.

The Panthers cornerback situation outside of Horn is dicey at best. If Horn follows St. Brown, one of the perimeter receivers on Detroit could have a big game. Raymond also doubles as the Lions return man, so you can consider pairing him with the Lions DST if you think he can take one to the house.

The freezing temperatures may limit the amount of long field goals we see. Despite the cold temps, I think both kickers are in play here.

The Lions have one of the best offensive line units in the league. If you think the Panthers can pressure Goff, the Panthers DST is another salary saving option in your flex spot.

While I don’t like them on the main slate – one of Thomas or Tremble can be considered here. They provide excellent leverage off of Shenault, who will be rostered quite a bit by the field.

Tim Parker
Tim Parker is a freelance writer. Tim previously covered the Charlotte 49ers for Rivals.com.