Week 16 Panthers DFS Guide: Bundle Up

Slate Overview: The Week 16 main slate consists of 10 games on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo.

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the games with the highest totals are:

1. Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-10): O/U 49

2. New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5): O/U 48

3. Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-5): O/U 47.5

The games with the lowest totals are:

1. New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-2.5): O/U 32.5

2. Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3): O/U 35.5

3. Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5): O/U 35.5

All odds are as of Wednesday evening.

DFS projected ownership notes

As of Wednesday night, the following players are projected to be the most owned at their positions in large field tournaments:

QB: Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Gardner Minshew III, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott

RB: Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Rhamondre Stevenson, Kenneth Walker III (FanDuel), D’Onta Foreman (FanDuel)

WR: Richie James Jr., Justin Jefferson, DK Metcalf, D.J. Moore, Terry McLaurin, CeeDee Lamb, Isaiah Hodgins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Terrace Marshall Jr. (DraftKings), Chris Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Curtis Samuel (FanDuel)

TE: Dalton Schultz, T.J. Hockenson, Daniel Bellinger, Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, Noah Fant

DST: Chiefs, Saints, Cowboys, Ravens, Browns (FanDuel), Saints (FanDuel)

Game odds per DraftKings Sportsbook (as of Wednesday evening)

PANTHER SALARIES BY SITE

TOURNAMENT PLAYS

D’Onta Foreman: Foreman is angry about how he played last week, which marks the second such occurrence of the season.

If you recall, he was angry after running for only 24 yards on 11 carries at Baltimore back in November. He followed that up by running it 24 times for 113 yards the next week at home against the Broncos.

While their overall season numbers don’t suggest they’re a top run stuffing unit, the Lions run defense has been outstanding during their recent surge.

This nugget from Adam Pfeifer, Senior NFL Analyst at FTN Fantasy, should tell the story.

During this recent stretch, the Lions have held Saquon Barkley and Dalvin Cook to a combined 55 rushing yards on 30 carries.

Insane.

— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) December 19, 2022

Foreman will be a more popular play on FanDuel thanks to his absurdly low price. He will be ignored by most of the field on DraftKings.

If you opt to play Foreman, you need the Panthers to be in control of the game. Per Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis, 41.4% of the Panthers offensive drives have gone 3-and-out, which is the highest mark in the league.

Foreman has a ceiling of 20 carries or more in positive game scripts. If the Lions jump all over the Panthers, he’s likely not going to be a differentiator in your lineups.

D.J. Moore: Since returning, Sam Darnold has targeted Moore 22.7% of the time. While their run defense has improved, the Lions are susceptible to giving up explosive plays through the air. They rank 22nd in Football Outsiders Pass Defense DVOA metric.

His price makes him an attractive play, especially on DraftKings. If you think this game can go over the projected point total, pairing Moore with Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is not a bad mini game stack to have in your lineups.

FADES

Photo Credit: Chanelle Smith-Walker/Carolina Panthers

Ian Thomas/Tommy Tremble: As usual, the Panthers tight ends are dirt cheap on all sites. While the Lions have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to the tight end position, the floor for Thomas and Tremble is too low for a main slate that features premium options at the position.

 

DRAFTKINGS SINGLE GAME SHOWDOWN STRATEGY & POSSIBLE CAPTAIN PLAYS

Player	DK CAPTAIN SALARY	FLEX SALARY
Amon-Ra St. Brown	$17,100	$11,400
D.J. Moore	$15,600	$10,400
Jared Goff	$15,300	$10,200
Sam Darnold	$14,400	$9,600
D’Onta Foreman	$11,700	$7,800
Jamaal Williams	$10,800	$7,200

Favorite Captains: St. Brown, Moore, Foreman

Moore/Foreman: I outlined my thoughts on Foreman and Moore earlier. If you play Moore at the captain spot, be sure to play Darnold in one of your flex spots. Foreman has a nice single game showdown price, but could be ignored if the field thinks the Panthers will be in a negative game script. If you think the Panthers will control the game against the Lions, Foreman is an excellent captain choice.

St. Brown: With the assumption of rational coaching, Amon-Ra St. Brown should be shadowed by Jaycee Horn the entire game.

If you’re into revenge or motivation narratives, there is one in this particular game. St. Brown can recite each of the 16 wide receivers that were taken ahead of him in the 2021 NFL Draft, including their school.

Amon Ra St Brown remembers the school and selection of every receiver that was drafted ahead of him😳 | #OnePride #Hardknocks pic.twitter.com/J2dgvRGLnZ

— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) August 17, 2022

One of those wide receivers plays for the Panthers, that being Terrace Marshall Jr.

For his standards, St. Brown has had two pedestrian efforts over the last two weeks as he scored 15.2 and 13.4 DraftKings points against the Jets and Vikings. He still commanded 19 combined targets in both games and got two total rushing attempts. He’ll be a focal point for the Lions and will be the most popular captain option in cash and tournament lineups.

Darnold: Darnold would be a contrarian option at captain. If you play Darnold at captain, you’ll want him to score a rushing touchdown or throw two or more to multiple receivers. As noted earlier, the Lions can be torched in the passing game.

Goff: Goff would be in play as captain if you believe he throws multiple touchdowns to different receivers. Goff has been much better at home than on the road. Here are his splits for the season:

Home: 20 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 106.9 QB Rating

Road: 3 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 82.5 QB Rating

Williams: Williams is in play as captain if you believe he scores multiple touchdowns. Williams has 21 rushing attempts inside the 5 yard line this season and 11 of those went for touchdowns. He has 46 carries in the red zone alone, which is tops in the league.

POSSIBLE FLEX PLAYS

LIONS	FLEX SALARY	PANTHERS	FLEX SALARY
D’Andre Swift	$9,000	Chuba Hubbard	$6,600
DJ Chark Jr	$6,400	Terrace Marshall Jr	$5,200
Josh Reynolds	$5,400	Eddy Pineiro	$4,000
Lions DST	$5,000	Panthers DST	$3,400
Brock Wright	$4,600	Shi Smith	$1,400
Jameson Williams	$4,400	Tommy Tremble	$800
Michael Badgley	$4,200	Laviska Shenault Jr.	$200
Kalif Raymond	$3,000	Ian Thomas	$200
Justin Jackson	$2,000	Raheem Blackshear	$200

Laviska Shenault Jr. is clearly mispriced and will be one of the more popular salary saving plays for the single game contest.

The Panthers cornerback situation outside of Horn is dicey at best. If Horn follows St. Brown, one of the perimeter receivers on Detroit could have a big game. Raymond also doubles as the Lions return man, so you can consider pairing him with the Lions DST if you think he can take one to the house.

The freezing temperatures may limit the amount of long field goals we see. Despite the cold temps, I think both kickers are in play here.

The Lions have one of the best offensive line units in the league. If you think the Panthers can pressure Goff, the Panthers DST is another salary saving option in your flex spot.

While I don’t like them on the main slate – one of Thomas or Tremble can be considered here. They provide excellent leverage off of Shenault, who will be rostered quite a bit by the field.