Each NFL season, the team that takes the final snap of the season almost never resembles the one that took the very first.
While the numbers and colors on a uniform may stay the same – and most of the players do too – NFL teams are highly malleable from week-to-week, let alone month-to-month, within a given season. And in the course of a season, perhaps no set of weeks are more important than the first few. Some teams hit their stride from the first step and quickly become sure of their way. Others have to figure out where they are going and adjust accordingly. For a few fortunate teams, reaching the event horizon and realizing that they will either go towards their destination – or go absolutely nowhere – is a manageable situation.
But for many, that realization hits them like Vernon Hargreaves hit Christian McCaffrey.
Simply put, the Carolina Panthers’ Week 2 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was as bad of a loss as the franchise has experienced in recent memory: in their own stadium and in the only nationally televised primetime game they are slated to get all year, they were manhandled by a traditionally middling Buccaneers team to drop to 1-9 since the midway point of the 2018 season.
Cam Newton, either attempting to play through or aggravating a Lisfranc injury mid-game, looked like half of himself as the Buccaneers’ front had their way at the line of scrimmage. The Panthers’ defense, re-tooled for 2019, too often looked like their 2018 selves against Jameis Winston. Christian McCaffrey, facing the same team that he gained more than 300 yards on in 2018, was unable to gain so much as a single one throughout the night – let alone on the most important play of the game.
With a narrow Week 1 loss to the Los Angeles Rams already accounted for, the Panthers fell to 0-2 after one final attempt to give themselves a chance to win the game – a fourth down fake-reverse ghost action – was sniffed out and stopped by the Buccaneers. In the Carolinas, the uproar over the state of the Panthers was palpable. Nationally, analysts lamented Cam Newton’s “decline”, while also citing the statistical improbability of an 0-2 recovering to make the playoffs. For all intents and purposes, the Carolina Panthers were left for dead.
Trouble is, they didn’t throw enough dirt on them.
LUUUUKE!
Now up against Tampa Bay for the second time in their season series, the Panthers are a changed and rejuvenated team.
After conceding that his foot was not healthy and needed time to heal, Cam Newton has yielded quarterbacking duties to backup Kyle Allen, who has played well enough for the Panthers to win and had moments of brilliance in doing so. Christian McCaffrey, after getting shut down by the Bucs in Week 2, has come back with a vengeance to lead the NFL with 587 rushing yards and 866 yards from scrimmage. The defense has returned to it’s old dominance in a new way, as a younger and faster unit has piled up 20 sacks (second in the league) and swung games decisively in their favor.
After being one of their biggest sore points in 2018, Carolina’s pass rush has become one of their greatest strengths. And naturally, it’s one of the most outstanding things the Panthers’ coaching staff has noticed when comparing their team in Week 2 to their team in Week 6.
“The biggest change I’ve seen has really been the pass rush – how it seems to be syncing up,” said head coach Ron Rivera. “How you see these guys coming together and understanding how to work with one another. The next is you see the communication between the secondary, the linebackers, and the D-Line. With Tre Boston back there, you see the comfort level he has working with Luke [Kuechly] – because remember, he worked with him during the 2015 season – you see that happen, and that’s been really good to see.”
“Offensively, you see Christian stepping up. He’s had a good couple of games to begin with, but then the last few you really see him stepping into his role. And you see Kyle distributing the ball to different guys as well. It’s just really everybody finding our footing is a good way to put it.”
While they have been more vulnerable to big plays in the run game than they would like, many elements of winning football have developed through Carolina’s current three-game winning streak: Despite missing personnel, the offensive line has come into its own. On special teams, the Panthers now have a punt rush to be reckoned with, and are also building trust in wild-yet-explosive return man Ray-Ray McCloud.
But most important of all has been the play of McCaffrey – back to face the one team that has stood in the way of him being the prohibitive favorite for NFL MVP through six weeks.
“If there’s one thing I feel that we’ve done well, it’s identify one person and take them out of a game,” said Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians of shutting down McCaffrey. “That’ll be easier said than done this time.”
Re-analyzing the Panthers for themselves, the Buccaneers noted in their own media sessions that Carolina has adopted more of a quick-passing game on offense while simplifying things on defense to make their pass rush more effective. But like the Panthers, the Buccaneers’ identity has also grown in the past several weeks – or at least taken baby steps towards growth. Although Jameis Winston is playing perhaps the best football of his career under Arians, his team has alternated between turning into contenders (Beating the Rams 55-40) and being the same old Tampa Bay Bucs (Blowing a 28-10 lead over the New York Giants while missing a game-winning field goal and getting stomped by the Drew Brees-less New Orleans Saints).
However, one element of the Bucs’ identity that wasn’t immediately clear in Week 2 is clear now: they won’t let anyone run the ball on them.
“They’ve got a lot of guys in the box, they’ve got a really good front. Obviously a good mix of run defenders,” said tight end Greg Olsen, who pointed out that the Buccaneers are second-best in the NFL in run defense. “A lot of that has to do with their personnel, their scheme – always trying to have more guys than you can block around the ball.”
With the benefit of time to let the season develop, the character of the Buccaneers’ defense under Todd Bowles – noted by Ron Rivera as having an especially aggressive scheme and mindset – has made more of what occurred in Week 2 make sense. For one, the Bucs are smothering opposing running backs, only allowing a league-low 3.1 rushing yards per game. For another, the performance of outside linebacker Shaquill Barrett has shown that his Week 2 performance was more than just him deciding to have a day against the Panthers – and Daryl Williams – in particular.
In his first season in Tampa Bay, Barrett has gone from being an average NFL pass rusher to a man seemingly possessed by the spirits of Lee Roy Selmon and Derrick Brooks. With his three sacks against the Panthers accounted for, Barrett is leading the NFL with nine sacks, taking home NFC Defensive Player of the Month honors for September and blowing away his previous career high of 5.5. Becoming a game-wrecker out of the wild blue, Barrett has forced the entire league to stand up and take notice – while also making the Panthers realize a major flaw with their Week 2 gameplan.
“I think he’s a guy that we’re definitely going to pay more attention to,” said left guard Greg Van Roten. “He’s done a great job this year and we’re definitely more aware of where he’s going to be.”
Learning what they have about who the Buccaneers now are as a football team, the Panthers’ path to victory on Sunday seems readily defined: exploit the backend vulnerabilities that the Buccaneers’ run-stopping scheme provides, and contain Barrett to keep him from making life difficult for Kyle Allen. But the Panthers know full well that, as they themselves are, the Buccaneers’ process of discovering who they are as a football team is a week-to-week process.
Assume to have figured them out, and they’ll adjust accordingly.
“My anticipation, is that you go back and you look at the things that they’ve done from those previous three weeks, and you sit there and say ‘Okay, they’ve changed this, they’ve changed this.’ So you do anticipate changes,” said Rivera. “You do anticipate them looking at what some of the opponents that we’ve played have done against us as well, and you can see them trying to add those things to what they do.”
With the season barely over a month old, there is still a great amount of football to be played before anyone can characterize who the 2019 Carolina Panthers are as a football team. Like any other week, Week 6 will go a long way towards determining their destiny. And as they rise back to form and perhaps become a force in the NFC, it seems only fitting that their opponent is the team that set them on their current path – and will help shape their identity once more.
