Greg Olsen has a broken foot. We can dance around it all we want, checking our calendar to see exactly which game would be the earliest Olsen could return if he’s placed on IR (that’d probably be November 5th against the Falcons), but the reality is that the Panthers have lost a Top-Two talent at the tight end position for not just the foreseeable future, but perhaps even longer; the problem with playing 160 straight games is there is no baseline for how quickly Greg Olsen recovers. Is he Adrian Peterson, shaking off an ACL in less time than it takes regular humans to get over a cold or is this foot injury an issue that will plague him the rest of the year, if not his career?
“I’m going to miss a lot of games. It sucks.”
-Greg Olsen
Let’s also not ignore the fact that Olsen is 31 years old, a foot injury for a precise route runner and blocker like Olsen can keep him from being 100% even if he gets back on the field, and that 6-8 week timeline is a best case scenario. Treating a recovery timeline like gospel and assuming that Olsen will be back for the Falcons game or even before the Panthers bye in Week 11 would be a mistake.
Instead of dwelling on the past and how much the Panthers will miss Olsen, let’s look ahead towards the rest of the season and see who has the best chance of filling Olsen’s very large shoes in his absence.
90% Chance: Ed Dickson
Contrary to what you may have heard, Ed Dickson is a competent tight end. The veteran has been a contributor on a Super Bowl winning team and is the epitome of a veteran backup, as evidenced by the confidence shown by quarterback Cam Newton following Olsen’s injury on Sunday. “I have full faith that Ed is going to do his job, I know Greg is going to coach those guys up,” Newton said. Dickson catches the ball when it is thrown his way, though not at quite the clip as a pro bowler like Greg Olsen; the former Raven’s catch rate (catch/target) in 2014-16 was 59.6% to Olsen’s 64.8%. Dickson has grown as a blocker and has taken on the role of fullback in the I-formation when the Panthers have a “rushing” down, backup Chris Manhertz will need to take over this role if Dickson is truly going to be slotted into all of Olsen’s routes and packages. The way that injuries can truly hurt your team is that you don’t just lose Olsen’s abilities, you lose Dickson’s blocking when he moves into Olsen’s role.
“We’re not going to change the offense because Greg’s out….Ed’s more than capable, he’s got that kind of ability; we as a coaching staff need to recognize that and stick with what we do.”
-Head Coach Ron Rivera
70%: Veteran Pass Catching Tight End Trade Target
Photo: Jeff Siner/Charlotte Observer
If the Panthers are truly in “Win Now” mode (and I believe they are), they may want to go out and trade a 2019 3rd or 4th round draft pick for a veteran tight end who can help them get through the regular season and then form a terrifying double threat when Greg Olsen returns. Interim GM Marty Hurney is not afraid to get on the phones and work, so don’t be surprised if names like Antonio Gates, Dwayne Allen, Jimmy Graham, or Clive Walford start being circulated through the Queen City. Ron Rivera said on Monday that “Marty and I will discuss what we need to do, and I know his guys are probably working on some things right now.”
60%: Kelvin Benjamin
Cam Newton said before the season that this season would be Kelvin Benjamin’s best, and he began to show that on Sunday with six catches for 77 yards against Buffalo. With Olsen, who many considered Newton’s security blanket of sorts, on the shelf, look for Benjamin to run more slant and bang routes to try and get him in mismatches against smaller cornerbacks. The job of clearing the middle of the field and drawing linebackers and safeties up the seam to create room for the underneath routes will now fall to Benjamin, as Ed Dickson will not draw the same kind of attention from defenders that Olsen did.
And no, he’s not moving to tight end.
50%: Devin Funchess
On Sunday against Buffalo, Funchess hauled in more yardage in a single game than any game last season; while this may not be an exact science, with Olsen’s eight targets per game being distributed throughout the offense, you’d imagine a couple of those will be going to the third year wide receiver from Michigan. The former Wolverine had his best season when Benjamin was sidelined, perhaps this is the goose that Funchess needs to get going.
50%: Veteran Blocking Tight End Trade Target
Photo: Kelley L Cox/USA TODAY Sports
If the Panthers are going to trade for a veteran tight end, they may go the blocking route to keep Manhertz as the third tight end and slot the trade target into the current Ed Dickson role. Players like Oakland’s Lee Smith, Dallas’ James Hanna, or Tenessee’s Craig Stevens would be great fits in this role if they’re available. Hurney is certainly working the phones not only for a “big splash” tight end like the pass catchers above, but a blocking tight end might be the player the Panthers truly need to succeed.
30%: Alex Armah/Bucky Hodges
If the Panthers decide to bring up Armah or Hodges to take Olsen’s roster spot, don’t expect them to be around the ball very much. They’d be taking Chris Manhertz’s third tight end spot, which is as an almost exclusively blocking tight end; Manhertz has exactly zero targets on his 26 snaps thus far in 2017.
20%: Christian McCaffrey/Jonathan Stewart
With eight targets per game gone, Ron Rivera may decide to take those eight plays and put them right in the guts of the running backs. The Panthers want to be a ground and pound, physical football team so they may just bulk up their running numbers. Look for McCaffrey and Stewart to pick up some targets on third down as well now that Olsen isn’t around to go eight yards to the sticks and turn around.
1%: Gary Barnidge
Photo: Getty Images
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