The Big Board
| Ranking | Name | College | Height | Weight | Arm Talent And Mobility | Ball Placement | The Mental Side | Biggest Concern | Summary | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Jones | Duke | 6'5 | 215 | Has the arm to make all the throws with good ball velocity and decent mobility though not dual threat. | Highly accurate with generally good touch, though touch does come and go at times. | Shows quick decision making and looks to work through reads well with limited mistakes, but played in simplistic college offense. | Can he show the same processing ability in a more complex NFL offense? | Shows the combination of arm talent, accuracy and processing that teams want, but will need to develop the mental side of this game in order to be effective in an NFL offense. | Late 1st Round |
| 2 | Dwayne Haskins | Ohio State | 6'3 | 220 | Has the arm to make all the throws with decent velocity and is mobile with potential to be consistent ball carrier. | Shows good accuracy and touch is decent though does under-throw at times. | Generally makes good decisions and works through progressions but appears slow to process at times despite simplistic offense. | Can he speed up his progressions and get to grips with more complex NFL offense? | Good pure thrower with added value in terms of mobility but will need to be more effective in executing an offense to succeed in the NFL. | Mid 2nd Round |
| 3 | Kyler Murray | Oklahoma | 5'10 | 207 | Has the arm to make all the throws with good velocity and is hyper mobile, though ability to carry large rushing workload is a concern. | Accuracy is generally good but touch comes and goes and there are some ugly misses. | Generally made good decisions in relatively pro-style offenses and showed the ability to work through progressions, but tended to rush under threat of pressure. | Can he function consistently without resorting to dropping his eyes and looking to run? | Makes some special throws, and arm talent is there is spades, but needs to be able to be more officious in working through progressions. | High 3rd Round |
| 4 | Brett Rypien | Boise State | 6'2 | 208 | Decent arm strength and velocity, with good mobility though not dual threat. | Good accuracy and generally decent touch though this does come and go at times. | Shows ability to work through reads effectively albeit in a simplistic offense. | Can he be as effective working through reads in more complex NFL offenses? | Game manager who shows good accuracy and has a strong enough arm to make almost all throws. | Mid 3rd Round |
| 5 | Drew Anderson | Murray State | 6'4 | 230 | Good arm strength with decent velocity with good mobility and some ability to handle rushing load. | Shows high level accuracy working down the field and touch is generally good. | Generally made decent reads but offense was highly simplistic and generally faced lower level of competition. | Can he handle the mental side of an NFL offense? | Has the arm that teams look for and showed an ability to be effective while in Buffalo, but will face step-up in terms of scheme complexity and competition level. | Late 3rd Round |
| 6 | Easton Stick | North Dakota State | 6'2 | 221 | Has the arm to make all the throws with good velocity and shows nice mobility though not dual threat. | Shows good accuracy and touch though wasn't asked to be highly accurate most of the time. | Generally made decent decisions in simplistic offense, but could be slow to process at times and has tendency to force plays. | Can he operate inside the constraints of an NFL offense? | Has a great arm and shows the ability to make all the throws, but needs to function more inside an offense and work through more complex progressions. | High 4th Round |
| 7 | Drew Lock | Missouri | 6'3 | 225 | Colossal arm with good velocity and decent mobility without being dual threat. | Good if sometimes inconsistent touch with decent accuracy despite some ugly misses. | Functioned in simplistic offense but forces some throws, especially when looking for the long ball, can also be slow to process reads. | Can he learn to work through complex read progressions and stick to them? | Huge arm talent, but didn't show the ability to consistently work as part of an offensive scheme. | Mid 4th Round |
| 8 | Brad Mayes | Lehigh | 6'2 | 205 | Good arm strength with decent velocity and mobility, though not dual threat. | Shows good accuracy and decent touch, though can struggle for placement on deeper throws. | Made good decision and processes quickly but in very simplistic offense and against much lower level of competition. | Can he master an NFL scheme and process fast enough to make reads against more complex defenses? | Small school stud with decent arm and potential to be above-average game manager. | Late 4th Round |
| 9 | Jake Browning | Washington | 6'2 | 205 | Decent arm strength and velocity with some mobility but not dual threat. | Generally decent accuracy with good touch. | Made good decisions in simplistic offense, though processing speed was slightly concerning. | Can he be efficient enough in a more complex scheme to be viewed as a game manager? | Doesn't make many mistakes but doesn't make many plus plays either, likely a career back-up. | Late 4th Round |
| 10 | Tyree Jackson | Buffalo | 6'7 | 245 | Good arm strength with decent velocity and is legitimately dual threat. | Decent accuracy but touch comes and goes, not aided by protracted throwing motion. | Decision making wasn't amazing despite simplistic scheme with prolonged processing time. | Can he be consistently accurate over all levels despite protracted throwing motion? | Big arm and good athlete, but quality of delivery often isn't great and doesn't impress from a mental standpoint. | Early 5th Round |
| 11 | Clayton Thorson | Northwestern | 6'3 | 225 | Decent arm strength with ok velocity and some mobility, but definitely not dual threat. | Good accuracy with decent touch. | Can be slow to process reads despite simplistic offense but decisions are generally decent. | Can he improve his ball velocity to allow him to work the edges of the field against NFL zone defenses? | Accurate thrower with the arm to work most of the field but velocity will create timing issues if it doesn't improve. | Early 5th Round |
| 12 | Kyle Shurmur | Vanderbilt | 6'4 | 225 | Decent arm strength and velocity but mobility is limited. | Good accuracy with decent touch. | Showed generally decent decision making in relatively complex offense, but tendency to panic under pressure is concerning. | Can he be trusted to operate a complex scheme from a dirty pocket? | Does a lot of nice things, but combination of panicking under pressure and mediocre arm make him a harder sell than his talent would suggest. | Mid 5th Round |
| 13 | Will Grier | West Virginia | 6'1 | 214 | Arm strength is really quite poor, as is velocity and while he shows some mobility he isn't dual threat. | Very accurate and short and intermediate touch are good but struggles on deeper throws where arm strength is limiting. | Made generally good decisions albeit in simplistic offense. | Is his arm something that can be worked around? | Has potential to be good game manager, but arm strength is potentially a deal breaker. | Late 5th Round |
| 14 | Taylor Cornelius | Oklahoma State | 6'6 | 220 | Good arm strength and decent velocity but lacks mobility. | Decent accuracy and pretty good touch, but rarely asked to throw receivers open. | Slow to process reads despite simplistic offense. | Can he master the mental side of an NFL offense? | Arm talent prospect with a lot of work to do in terms of actually running an offense. | Early 6th Round |
| 15 | Nick Fitzgerald | Mississippi State | 6'4 | 230 | Good arm strength with decent velocity and mobility but not dual threat. | Accuracy is decent but struggled for touch at times. | Struggled to make consistently good reads despite simplistic offense. | Is there a chance he is able to master a complex NFL offense? | Decent athlete but arm talent isn't enough to make up for concerns about his mental game. | Mid 6th Round |
| 16 | Jordan Ta'amu | Ole Miss | 6'3 | 222 | Good arm strength with decent velocity and some mobility though not dual threat. | Decent accuracy with nice touch on deeper throws though this can be inconsistent underneath. | Questionable decision making despite simplistic offense with some really poor reads. | Can he master an offensive scheme in the NFL? | Another arm talented player with questionable ability to function inside and offense. | Late 6th Round |
| 17 | Kyle Kempt | Iowa State | 6'5 | 210 | Good arm strength with decent velocity but limited mobility. | Accuracy and touch are both decent. | Struggled to effectively work through progressions to the correct read despite simplistic offense. | Is the mental side of the game something that is ever going to catch up? | Decent thrower of the ball but struggles to run an offense even at the collegiate level. | Late 6th Round |
| 18 | Gardner Minshew | Washington State | 6'2 | 220 | Arm strength is ok but struggles for velocity at times but is mobile albeit not dual threat. | Accuracy is decent but struggles for touch at times. | Works through simplistic reads well albeit quite slowly. | Is he accurate enough to allow him to develop into a reliable back-up? | Does some nice things, but misses too many throws for somebody who doesn't produce many plus plays. | Early 7th Round |
| 19 | Ryan Finley | NC State | 6'4 | 205 | Struggles for both arm strength and velocity and while mobile isn't dual threat. | Good short accuracy but struggles for touch. | Makes good decisions albeit in simplistic offense. | Is his arm a deal breaker? | Has game manager potential but arm is potentially a non-starter. | Late 7th Round |
| 20 | Jarrett Stidham | Auburn | 6'3 | 214 | Decent arm strength and velocity and is legitimately dual threat. | Decent accuracy but touch is poor. | Struggled to work through progressions despite simplistic offense and made a number of poor choices. | Can he actually read defenses? | There's talent here, but he really struggled to operate even Auburn's simplistic scheme. | Undrafted |
| 21 | Eric Dungey | Syracuse | 6'3 | 226 | Decent arm strength with ok velocity and good mobility though not dual threat. | Decent accuracy but touch really comes and goes. | Questionable decision making despite simplistic offense. | Is there enough upside to make him worth trying to develop? | There are some positives, but a lot of things need work. | Undrafted |
| 22 | David Blough | Purdue | 6'0 | 205 | Ok arm strength but velocity isn't great and while mobile, isn't dual threat. | Accuracy is decent but struggles for touch. | Decent decision making but scheme was highly simplistic. | Will his arm allow him to make the throws he'll need to make in the NFL? | Upside is that of a game manager, but arm is limiting. | Undrafted |
| 23 | Tanner Mangum | BYU | 6'3 | 215 | Decent arm strength and velocity with mobility though not dual threat. | Accuracy is ok but touch is poor. | Questionable decision making despite simplistic offense. | Can he learn to function inside an NFL offense? | Arm talent is there but misses too many throws and struggles to function inside an offense. | Undrafted |
| 24 | Justice Hansen | Arkansas State | 6'3 | 218 | Decent arm strength and velocity and while mobile isn't dual threat. | Accuracy isn't great and touch is poor. | Questionable decision making despite simplistic offense. | Is there enough upside to make him worth working on? | Just doesn't do enough things well to merit serious consideration. | Undrafted |
| 25 | Trace McSorley | Penn State | 6'0 | 195 | Struggles for arm strength and velocity and while mobile isn't dual threat. | Accuracy is ok but touch is poor and wasn't asked to throw receivers open with regularity. | Questionable decision making despite simplistic offense. | Is there enough upside to make him worth working on? | Made some special plays in college but struggles to actually play the position. | Undrafted |
In very general terms, this board isn’t dissimilar from many others you’ll see around the NFL; Jones, Haskins and Murray make up three of the top four spots. However, in my opinion, Jones is the top prospect due to the speed and accuracy of his mental processing – he regularly showed the ability to work quickly and effectively through his progressions to find the open man. Given how much difficulty Duke had in protecting him for any length of time this season, this processing speed was really put to the test, something that is more realistic in terms of the time he will have in the NFL.
Haskins does a lot of nice things, and there is a reason why a lot of people have him going in the top ten, but he does take some time to work through his reads and struggles for velocity at times on his outside throws. Similarly, Kyler Murray does some really exceptional things on tape, but he tended to drop his eyes and look to to run more than you’d like and there were some ugly misses on tape. He possibly has one of the highest, if not the highest, ceilings of any prospect in this class – which is why he’ll likely be the first QB drafted and there’s already talk of him going first overall – but, for me, it’s hard to have him highest based on where his floor is.
Now is a good time to remind you that a third-round grade isn’t an indictment of where I think the player will be drafted, but rather a tool for ranking them – I haven’t given out very many first round grades in this year’s weak draft class.
Of course, unlike most other boards, the fourth player in my top four isn’t Drew Lock but instead Boise State’s Brett Rypien. Rypien’s the exact opposite of Murray – a relatively low ceiling but he shows high level accuracy and a nice ability to work through reads on tape. By contrast, Lock has one of the highest ceilings in the class, with a cannon of an arm, but limited ability to work through reads and a tendency to stick on the deep route longer than is healthy – again, upside counts for a lot, so that’s why you’re seeing Lock being mocked in the first round; I’ll always err on the side of a higher floor, which I understand isn’t the way most NFL teams draft.
The other players I have higher than most are a trio of small school guys: Drew Anderson, Easton Stick and Brad Mayes. Anderson and Stick in particular have rare arm talent, but both have questions concerning their ability to run an offense with Stick especially having a real tendency for trying to playing hero ball. Mayes is much more of a game manager type pick, but given the lower level of competition he faced, it is hard to trust him to make an immediate impact.
It would be a surprise to see the Panthers target a quarterback before the final day of the draft, but there is a chance that Rypien could last as far as the fourth, and players like Anderson, Stick and Mayes should all be there well into the final day of the draft. This isn’t the biggest need the Panthers have right now, but given the value, there are several players here worth being aware of – especially as we get deep into the draft.
