The Panthers defense to this point in the season appears to be a collection of contradictions. They rank eighth in total defense, seventh in scoring defense, seventh in third down defense, sixth in turnover percentage, ninth in first downs allowed and concede the seventh fewest penalties – these are all very good numbers and indicators of how they’ve gotten to 5-2. But despite all those great numbers, they rank a worrisome 31st in red zone defense and have allowed touchdowns on 13 of opponent’s 17 trips into the red zone; this team’s inability to keep teams out of the end zone once they make it to the Panthers’ 20 yard line is troubling. So why is a defense with a lot of positive markers doing so poorly in the red zone, and is this just a symptom of a bigger problem?
Turnover Dependence
The Panthers currently rank an impressive sixth in the NFL in turnover percentage, and while that has allowed them to win games to this point, is has also likely hidden some of the flaws present on this defense. Not only does this help the Panthers in terms of positive field position and momentum, but it can work to kill otherwise effective and efficient drives. While this doesn’t explain why the Panthers are so poor in the red zone, it does go some of the way to explaining why they are able to have a decent scoring defensive despite being so poor inside the 20. But what is it that these turnovers might be covering up?
First, it means the Panthers have played far fewer defensive snaps than most other teams – only the Seahawks, Bears and Lions have played fewer snaps on defense than the Panthers so far this season and that means while the Panthers look good on an aggregate basis, when the numbers are judged on a play-by-play basis they don’t look as rosy. The Panthers have allowed the sixth fewest rushing yards this season, but rank 18th on a per-carry basis. Similarly, the Panthers have allowed the 11th fewest passing yards, but that drops to 16th on a per-attempt basis. Combined, this means that the Panthers defense that has allowed the 7th fewest yards this season, but actually ranks 19th in yards-per-play.
Of course, the NFL is very much an ends business, with the means being somewhat by-the-by – if the Panthers are able to continue to produce in this way then I don’t think there would be a huge number of complaints, but the issue is that turnovers are quite difficult to build a defense around – at least by themselves. The reason behind this is that turnovers don’t happen with a predictable frequency, and so while the Panthers have forced thirteen turnovers in seven games, those turnovers haven’t at all been split evenly. Some weeks, such as the games against the Ravens and the Bengals, the Panthers have forced at least three turnovers, and it should not come as a surprise that these have been the Panthers most comfortable wins, but in others they haven’t had any and have been forced to get off the field on third downs. A cautionary tale: last season’s Bills, who did an excellent job of forcing 17 turnovers through the first half of the season and started 5-2 as a result, when those turnovers dried up somewhat in the second half of the season (only eight in the final nine games), they really struggled to keep teams in check and finished 9-7.
A good way to look at this is that turnovers should come as a bonus when teams are forced to take risks on long third downs and similar rather than being the result of simple offensive error, as while these will happen, they are likely to even out over time. Of the Panthers’ 13 turnovers forced so far this season, four have come on first down with another on a punt return, with just five on either third or fourth down – one of those was the intercepted Hail Mary against the Bengals. None of these are bad turnovers, there is no such thing, but the first down interceptions are unlikely to continue at this rate.
OK, so the Panthers defense might be getting a little lucky to this point, but how come they are anomalously bad in the red zone even with that?
Up Next: The Third Down Issues
