Getting Ground Down
It is generally accepted that it is harder to run the ball in the red zone than elsewhere on the field as the defense is able to bring its safeties down into the box without having to risk being beaten over the top – the compression of the field leads to an overall lack of space for ball carriers. It shouldn’t be a shock then that the Panthers allow much lower yards-per-carry in the red zone (3.4) than they do elsewhere on the field (4.6 – yikes!), but while that average would rank second in the NFL over the course of the season so far, in the red zone it really isn’t that impressive. In fact, over 65% of rushing attempts against the Panthers in the red zone have lead to the offense moving ahead of the sticks. The numbers are small enough that some of this can be put down to anomalous breakdowns in gap discipline or the odd missed tackle, but this is not the emphatic run defense many Panthers fans would be hoping for.
Most worrying of these carries from a defensive point of view are two third down runs they allowed early on in the season on QB scrambles, allowing Dallas to convert a third-and-7 and for Atlanta to score on a third-and-5. Neither are due to some catastrophic scheme failure, and on both cases the issue appears to be a late reaction from a defender. In the first case, Luke Kuechly is a little slow in moving off of the running back and pursuing to the edge:
And on the second, Adams appears to be genuinely uncertain as whether he should take the run or double the receiver, and ends up committing to the run too late to do much about it:
Neither of these plays are cause for massive concern, and the latter in particular will likely not be something they concede often, but by allowing teams to get reasonably consistent yardage against them on the ground, they make it hard to get themselves in situations where they can use the compressed space to get after the quarterback and get off the field. There is no easy remedy for this, but the Panthers certainly have the personnel to be better and there is a chance that they have simply produced an abnormal sample group to this point.
Those Damned Third Downs
Outside of the red zone, the Panthers are allowing an impressive 32% conversion rate on third downs – only the Ravens and the Vikings average better than that over the whole field this season – but in the red zone that number rises to a worrying 60%, which would rank last in the NFL. Of course, two of those conversion were on the scrambles shown above, but even without those the Panthers still allow a 50% completion rate, a number which rises to 60% for passing plays on third downs of four yards or more, plays where the offense is technically behind the chains. Five plays is a very small sample size, but how are teams managing to convert these plays; is it bad luck or is there something the Panthers could do to change this?
First let’s eliminate player error – or at least imperfection – as was seemingly the case on the Ravens’ touchdown on third-and-4 this past Sunday. The Ravens run four receivers to the left of the play to pull the coverage to that side leaving the running back one-on-one on the outside against James Bradberry, who knows he doesn’t have help outside and so forces Allen back inside of him, but Adams is slightly too deep to be able to get to the receiver in time to force the incompletion.
This is a really nice play by the Ravens and while the Panthers will want to learn from this, sometimes you simply have to tip your cap and move on to fight another day. What the Panthers can learn from are the two completions they have allowed on long third downs in the red zone, both to Atlanta and to Cincinnati:
In both cases the Panthers run the same coverage, man across the board with safety help in the middle and a blitzer giving the Panthers a five-on-five rush. In both cases the ball comes out too quickly for the Panthers to get to the quarterback, with both receptions being inside breaking routes to the outside receivers. While both catches are against Donte Jackson, he actually is in good position in both cases, especially against Ross, but without inside help he is always going to struggle and the zone defender is simply too far away – the quarterback is able to run multiple receivers across his face and then read which one he goes to.
There is good news and bad new on this front, as while the Panthers have improved on third downs in the red zone as the season has gone on – having allowed four straight conversions to start the season, opponents have gone two-for-six since – they have run this coverage as recently as the Eagles game – allowing offenses to pick up easy completions. While Eric Washington is obviously going to take some time to hit his stride as a playcaller and was never a defensive backs coach to start with, if the Panthers are going to keep running this coverage, they are likely to continue to struggle, both in the red zone and elsewhere. The Panthers have the personnel to play man coverage in a way they didn’t a few years ago, but they need to be wise about how they use it, as for even the best defenders to play man coverage consistently they need help either inside or out, and by pairing man coverage with blitz packages the Panthers simply aren’t going to be able to provide this.
Despite all this, the Panthers are 5-2 and squarely in the hunt for the playoffs – there is a chance that these numbers improve without changes to the defensive scheme, but it would be wise for the Panthers to dial back some of the man-blitzes they have carried over from the Steve Wilks days. With that and maybe even a sack here and there, they will hopefully find their red zone numbers coming back into line with some of their other defensive stats. They’ve gotten away with being porous in this regard for the most part to this point, but to begin to get close to their potential, they’ll need to be better.
All clips via NFL Game Pass.
